An increase in cases this week has the region’s medical officer of health concerned as he watches the local statistics begin to trend in "the wrong direction.”
In the Simcoe-Muskoka region, the doubling rate of the virus went from 35 days for the week of April 27 to May 3 to 30 days for the week of May 4-10. The doubling rate is the number of days it takes for cases in the region to double. The higher the number, the slower the spread.
“It’s not a sign we’re on the right track,” said Dr. Charles Gardner, medical officer of health for the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit.
For the week of April 20-26, the local health unit confirmed 52 cases in the region. The week of April 27 to May 3 there were 57 new cases. For the week of May 4-10 there were 63 cases.
Outbreaks at long-term care facilities declared in the region are “a contributor,” he said, noting about 24 per cent of the total 379 cases confirmed in the region are related to outbreaks.
“The total effect is a bit of a setback for us … it’s a cautionary note for us all,” said Gardner.
According to the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit, there have been 117 cases of COVID-19 acquired through community transmission and 106 through close contact. There have been 66 cases confirmed in residents of long-term care facilities, and 26 cases confirmed in staff working at a facility in outbreak.
During a media call last week, Gardner said he and his staff didn’t have clear data showing exactly how people are contracting the virus in the community.
“If it weren’t for the physical distancing people were doing in the first place we would have a lot more of it,” said Gardner. “I would say, as people go about things in the community, there is a residual risk.”
The health unit gathered some occupational data on confirmed positive cases, but not for all.
What they did gather showed about one-quarter of the cases were health-care workers.
“These are health-care workers that did not obtain this from their work; they are community-acquired cases,” said Gardner, noting he didn’t know the percentage of the region’s population that are health-care workers to begin with.
The rest of the data collected showed 92 per cent of people infected with COVID-19 who shared their occupations were classified as essential workers, including first-responders, food and grocery, manufacturing, construction, and transportation.
This week, the province is allowing more businesses to open up and Premier Doug Ford announced today the province would officially begin stage one of its three-phase reopening plan later this week.
The first phase, set for Thursday, includes opening low-risk, seasonal workplaces.
Ontario's medical officer of health, Dr. David Williams, said he wasn’t confident the province met the threshold to start its economic recovery plan.
Meanwhile, Gardner says he is also worried about people having a false sense of security, and the potential for more people being exposed to the virus.
“I am concerned about the potential for increased transmission as things start to open up,” said Gardner. “I in no way believe that opening up businesses will help us bring down our numbers. I think it will be a further challenge for us to bring down our numbers.”
He acknowledged the shutdowns have been hard on people and economies, but said there’s a risk when controls are relaxed.
“We need to raise awareness that (the epidemiological curve) has plateaued, it’s not coming down,” said Garder. “There’s further risk … as we relax. We need to be more careful.”
He reiterated the same advice he’s been offering since March: keep your distance, plan essential trips sparingly, and you can never wash your hands too often.
